OK, here's an easy graphic...
In Response To: Texas death predictions *Pic* ()

...that hints at the issue behind all the medical and political fear. The movie "Contagion" depicts a pandemic with a virus that has IIRC 20% fatality rate even with advanced supportive care. It's pretty accurate in that portrayal. Our current little bitch has at most a 1% fatality rate with advanced supportive care intact. At first glance this seems like no big deal.

The issue is that once this little bitch gets rolling, you eventually get Heath Care System Saturation (HCSS) (I prefer the term 'collapse' cause that is what it will look like) and the bitch suddenly changes into a 15%+ fatality rate. That's the basis of the higher numbers on the graphic.

With a 6 day asymptomatic infective window in the majority of patients on top of a significant number of well-meaning but still infective patients, the effectiveness of anything less than an involuntary lockdown is not going to be great.

When I said before that "we're not testing enough" I meant that we aren't getting enough data to know how deep in the shit we're getting and how hard we need to crank it down. WITH the data, we could crank it down sooner and more gently. Without the data now, in 2 weeks everyone will know and a very hard lockdown will be in order but less helpful.


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