THE SNUGBUS Archive

Agree with some of it. Especially the first section.

Remember, log graph makes things look visually reassuring vs std plots. So don't be duped. This is still growing.

What gets missed is the effect of behavioral change on the curves. So people conclude they don't need to continue the distancing, isolation, etc. Big mistake. Instead, one can infer a modicum of success largely thanks to such changes. I mean, we don't have a drug or vaccine yet. The growth won't slow absent behavioral changes.

Am uneasy about the low transmission part. Still kinda impressed with the nursing home impact in WA.

There's a balance to be struck between the "doom and gloom" crowd and those who see the world according to their wishes. The human capacity to do the latter never fails to amaze me. Eg., I don't want to believe this is a problem, ergo it is not a problem, maybe a gubmint conspiracy. Whatever.

Stay the course, do what you can to educate and prevent transmission. We are seeing some really stupid shit here. Eg., couple days ago kid came to the ED with family, because she banged her knee. Seriously. They had just driven from CA in their SUV, a deliberate escape plan. Well, one of them had been in close personal contact (your guess is correct) with someone who subsequently tested positive. Great escape, eh? Now we wait.

Messages In This Thread