...here's the numbers as good as we know them: 5 day incubation, 11 days until symptoms. That means MOST of the infected folks have a 6 day asymptomatic window when they're contagious, shedding virus and they don't know it. Now add to that a large number of folks who remain asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic throughout the course of their disease. They also are shedding virus right along.
Now we've all seen the pics and heard the interviews of the kids at the beach and other entertainment spots, stating clearly that covid-19 is not their problem...and maybe it's not. But it's definitely their parents' problem. This is one of the things driving the exponential ongoing growth.
Now in this country, they're mostly only testing high risk folks, mostly symptomatic (unless you're a movie star). Another interesting number is that when we finally began large scale testing, only 1-2 percent were coming up positive, as opposed to Europe where it was 3-4 percent positive. Now we hear yesterday that they'd tested 195k people so far and the testing positive percentage had risen to 7-8 percent. Now remember, these are only the "high risk" folks. Whatever numbers they're coming up with now are LOW because they're missing all or most of the asymptomatic folks.
Now the 1% fatality number is pretty good and our death numbers are probably the most accurate ones that we have. At any given day, do the math on the deaths and you will get a closer handle on how many are really out there. We'll probably hit the 50k number I predicted by the weekend. If we miss the 100k number by the first of April, that will mean our forced quarantine measures are starting to work.
Does anyone remember a week or so ago when I said that this looked like two diseases not just one because the numbers weren't working? Well, it turns out that there are 4 recognized different lines of this Corona along with the original. One of the mutations is supposed to be much more virulent but I haven't seen any hard data on this yet. This might be the best news we've had yet about this little bitch.