A total of 60% down peak to trough SP500, national quarantine coming within days, 70% of population gets infected-most will be fine , most service businesses closed 3 months, 1% fatality rate but hospital system as a whole handled it all -barely. Life not back to normal overall until end of the year. That’s my base case...could be a LOT worse but I seriously doubt it will be better than that.
So not the zombie apocalypse but also not all hype.
I do feel the 1/2 ass measures we have taken and are taking to fight this are ineffective and futile and will not “bend the curve “- It’s hubris to think by keeping kids outta school combined w “ self quarantine “ like measures will alter its course. IMO only a HARD lockdown ( meaning threat of arrest if out , etc ) with deployed troops + early border closures had/have a legit chance of preventing major pain that’s to come /Taste of it here already. I feel out 1/2 measures to date have done more economic harm to ourselves than the virus would have unchecked. And that’s a shame. We will get the worst outcome - that being self induced major recession/depression AND still a pretty bad systemic medical problem to deal with. I do NOT feel that the “ hospital system will collapse “ in the USA.
My confidence level in the above is not high. Bc I simply do not know. Opinions ALL over the map and by smart people. Alarmists stating we have under reacted v. others saying we over reacted and did needless damage and fear.
Like other poster on this thread I feel that this CV19 fight will make the govt much larger and powerful in the end. We’ll end up w more regulation , more top level power , more nanny/welfare state ( wait until you see exactly how the bailouts are handled !) , and one giant step closer to socialism.
That’s my feeling right now.