We know that number...

…20%. And 10% of THOSE are gonna need ICU. So using the current # (7300 at 3p 3/18) you're looking at 1460 admissions and 150 ICU beds gone. Now nationwide, we have about a million hospital beds with the facilities running about 70% capacity on a day to day basis. That means about 300k available beds on any given day. With those numbers, 7300 really isn't a problem.

The problem comes when we continue doubling our cases every 3-6 days. Right now we're on track for doubling every 3 days but I believe that is sampling artifact from the surge we're seeing in testing. We should be well above 12k before the weekend, well above 50k before the end of the month. Now we're up to 10k admissions with a thousand ICU beds.

Now here is where it REALLY gets interesting. If it keeps doubling only every 6 days, by the first week in May we'll have 3.2 million cases with 640k admissions and 64k ICU beds! THIS is the number that has all the medical folks sucking wind. THIS is when mortality is gonna jump from 1% to possibly as high as 10% or more!

OK, right now our mortality is not doing badly, 155 deaths out of 7300. That will initially start looking better because our case count is going to jump quicker than our fatalities. This is again sampling artifact and will eventually become more linear when ALL suspected cases can and will be tested.

That STILL doesn't take into account all those fuckers walking around that have no fucking clue that they are even sick. THAT'S why I'm still on the fence as to the seriousness of this virus.


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